What’s your
next win?

FROM ESTIMATE TO EVIDENCE

Make your next move measurable.

One opportunity. A clear baseline. A pilot worth testing.

DOBSON DEVELOPMENT / VALUE REVIEW

Turn a good idea
into a measured pilot.

Start with a focused Value Review: check the baseline, challenge the assumptions and define one pilot with a clear success measure. Scope and fees are agreed before work starts.

01 A defensible baseline02 A bounded pilot scope03 A go / no-go measure

Your draft stays in this page until you choose to share it. The summary includes the modelled result, not your private evidence notes.

Assumptions

Behind the result

Sensitivity

User-defined scenarios, not probability forecasts.

Your analysis

A new opportunity

Starts with an editable example.
THE MODEL, EXPLAINED

Useful numbers.
Visible assumptions.

Value Lab is a discovery and prioritisation tool by Dobson Development. It estimates a business case from your inputs; it does not certify control effectiveness or predict an incident.

Cyber risk

Annual expected loss = events per year × loss per event. Residual loss applies your frequency and impact reductions multiplicatively. Avoided loss is the difference, less any new annual risk. A 50% frequency reduction and 20% impact reduction together reduce expected loss by 60%, not 70%. Expected loss is a long-run average, not a guaranteed annual cost.

AI capacity

Hours recovered = tasks × adoption × (manual minutes − retained work − extra review) ÷ 60. Annual volume is monthly volume × 12. Include fallback handling in retained work, and review time separately. Hours are valued at loaded hourly cost. Cash realisation identifies the share backed by actual spend reductions; the rest is capacity value. They are parts of the same benefit and are never added twice.

Cash savings

Annual cash savings = addressable spend × reduction × realisation. Use spend that will actually stop, such as invoices, overtime or retired subscriptions. Do not repeat staff capacity value from another opportunity.

Costs, time and uncertainty

Implementation cost is paid at month 0. Recurring costs apply every month, including the go-live delay. Benefits start the following month and remain constant. Total cost includes the full selected horizon. Net value is benefit minus cost; benefit / cost is different from ROI, which is net value / cost. NPV discounts monthly net benefits using the annual rate you choose. Break-even is the first month-end recovery within the horizon, without discounting.

Downside and upside scale gross benefits and project costs independently; new annual risk remains unchanged. Physical limits cap risk reduction at baseline loss, cash reduction at addressable spend and time value at total manual-work value. Negative time savings remain visible. Sensitivity ranges are not statistical confidence intervals. Evidence labels describe your stated support and never alter the arithmetic.

Evidence before commitment

All defaults are fictional examples, not market benchmarks. Check mandatory obligations, residual risk, service quality, human oversight, reversibility and benefit overlap alongside the economics. Regulatory and safety requirements may justify an investment without a positive financial return. Discounting excludes taxes, inflation, financing and terminal value.

References

The general risk-assessment framing is informed by NIST SP 800-30 Rev. 1. AI deployment review can draw on the NIST AI Risk Management Framework. Value Lab's simplified formulas and sensitivity settings are its own; this is not a full implementation or certification of either framework.

Your data

The calculator does not send your inputs to Dobson Development or an AI model. Inputs remain in this page unless you choose device storage or download a file. Device storage is readable by other users of the same browser profile. Reset clears the saved analysis. JSON exports and printed briefs can contain everything you entered; share them deliberately. The hosting platform may process ordinary access logs and authentication. The pilot planner prepares a draft in your browser. Copying or downloading does not send it to Dobson Development. If an email destination is configured, opening your email app lets you review and send it yourself. No analytics or third-party scripts are included in this application.

Read the code, formulas and MIT licence on GitHub ↗
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